Data Suggest Solid 2024 Holiday Sales

Based on expert projections and the latest economic data, the 2024 holiday shopping season has the potential to be a good one for online retailers.

The National Retail Federation says a record 183.4 million Americans plan to shop in physical stores and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year. That would be up from the previous record of 182 million in 2023.

For the entire holiday season, NRF projects that the internet will again be the top shopping destination for holiday shoppers, with 57% of U.S. consumers planning to do at least some of their holiday shopping online. Department and grocery stores will tie for second at 46% each, and discount stores will be in third place at 45%.

The NRF expects total (online and offline) 2024 U.S. holiday sales in November and December to increase up to 2.6% over 2023, reaching $989.9 billion. That would amount to a record average spend of $902 per person for gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items. Online holiday sales in 2024 will reach $300.0 billion, up 8.3% from the prior year, according to the NRF.

‘The most mobile’ year for ecommerce

Adobe expects U.S. online holiday sales to hit a record of $240.8 billion (PDF) in November and December, up 8.4% from 2023. Adobe says that includes a projected record of $128.1 billion in mobile device purchases, giving mobile a 53.2% share of online holiday spending. That would make 2024’s holiday season “the most mobile of all time,” Adobe says.

Adobe expects online sales for Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) to hit $40.6 billion, with Cyber Monday being the biggest shopping day of the season at $13.2 billion in online sales.

Another indication of the strength of online shopping comes from the annual holiday spending survey of The Conference Board, a think tank. The survey found that 43% of U.S. consumers expect to purchase at least half of their gifts online in 2024, while just 8% expect to buy gifts entirely in physical stores.

The Conference Board also found that consumers plan to spend an average of $1,063 on holiday-related purchases in 2024, up 7.9% from 2023. That includes an average of $677 spent on gifts, up 3.4% from last year.

The think tank’s survey found that 52% of U.S. shoppers plan to spend the same amount on gifts in 2024 as in 2023, while 23% plan to spend more and 25% less than last year.

A $1 trillion year?

The data and consulting firm Forrester Research expects total (online and offline) U.S. holiday retail sales to hit a cool $1 trillion this year, a 3.7% increase from last year. Forrester says online sales will grow 10.1% year-over-year, reaching $257 billion, or nearly 26% of total U.S. holiday retail sales, up from 24.2% in 2023.

In a report, Forrester says, “Online retail sales for the holiday period will grow faster than in the previous two years but slower than the average of pre-pandemic years when they mostly grew by double digits.”

“2024’s holiday season for e-commerce looks promising but not exceptional,” Forrester analyst Jitender Miglani, based in New Delhi, India, told Practical Ecommerce in an email. “Sales are expected to grow faster than the past two years but slower than the double-digit growth seen pre-pandemic.”

Miglani expects holiday sales growth “to be largely volume-driven rather than inflation-driven.” That’s because “goods inflation is nearly zero, while headline inflation remains slightly above 2%, primarily due to higher inflation in services,” he added.

Additional indicators

Other surveys, projections, and economic data point to a cheerful, if not exuberant, holiday season for retailers.

• The consulting firm Bain & Co. expects online retail sales growth of 9.5% in 2024. That’s down significantly from a 13.1% 10-year average. But Bain expects physical store sales to grow at a slim 0.5%, leading to a total holiday sales growth of 3%, the smallest year-over-year gain since 2018 and more than two points lower than the 10-year average of 5.2%, Bain says.

• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that average hourly earnings in the U.S. grew faster than inflation from September to October and year over year. The September-to-October increase was 0.1%. The agency says average hourly earnings after inflation rose 1.4%, seasonally adjusted, from October 2023 to October 2024.

• The BLS also reports that the economy kept generating net jobs in October, albeit slowly after hurricanes Helene and Milton. Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 12,000, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, BLS reported. Employment in health care and government continued to increase, while temporary help services lost jobs and manufacturing employment declined due to strike activity.

• The payroll processing firm ADP presented a much rosier employment picture than the BLS. The firm, which uses a different methodology than the government, says private employers added 233,000 jobs in October, the most since July 2023.